Nepali Congress Party will not split, should not split and cannot split. That is an ideality – an aspirational goal that every congressi strives to achieve. But the reality is different. The party is at the verge of splitting. It is divided into two camps. One, Deuba faction or old guards and two, Young Turks led by Gagan Thapa. Both sides do not risk taking blame of party split. Therefore, seek to rationalize that NC will never split or will come united.
If one digs into NC history, it has split, united and hived-off into splintered groups, and a number of leaders have disassociated with or from the party. In a way, the party has withstand political topsy-turvy in the country. However, there is one big fact to note: Being the grand old party of Nepal, political stability as well as instability has always been closely associated with NC unity or disunity. Therefore, present day sterile political situation, post Gen-Z rebel, cannot be resolved without first waiting to see what happens within NC. Once things are settled within NC, choppy political waters will be cleared.
For the moment, both camps seems to be glued by the pending case at the Supreme Court related to the legitimacy of the Special General Convention. The convention was a kind of a chutzpah, a bloodless coup by Gagan Thapa to oust Deuba and his clans. I take it as a Gen-Z within NC. If you think Gen-Z to be good than what is happening inside NC is good; if you think otherwise, Gagan Thapa will be reduced to Gone Thapa.
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As a pressure tactics, Gagan Thapa camp has published a schedule for holding 15th General Assembly while Deuba faction has gone to the court to withhold that convention. It has also clearly asserted that upcoming 15th Assembly can be held only under the leadership of Deuba. There are no shortage of NC pundits asserting that NC unity must be resolved before the court issued its verdict; others to abide by court verdict, irrespective to its outcome. There can be two possibilities. One, the court can annul Special General Assembly, Gagan Thapa’s coup d’état, and restore Deuba’s legitimate authority within NC. Two, verdict may be in favor of Gagan Thapa. Nepal’s court is as much unpredictable as the ongoing monsoon weather. To be at a safer side it can delay issuing its verdict or the verdict, instead of issuing black or white, may prefer to remain grey, as for example, the issue is purely internal matter of the party, therefore, outside the jurisdiction of the court. Period.
There are also pundits, within Gagan Thapa camp, saying the court cannot review the legitimacy of holding the Special General Assembly as that is tantamount to annulling the last general elections. This is nothing more than a pressure tactics.
If one closely observed the events and incidents taking place inside NC, post Gen-Z, Deuba has clearly predicted that “holding of Special General Assembly will split the party into two”. He was against the Special Assembly. What he predicted has essentially come true. Currently, NC is marred by 14th Assembly (that is the past), holding of Special Assembly (the present situation) and the upcoming 15th Assembly (the unknown future). There is full agreement that NC needs to hold 15th Assembly to resolve internal party disputes. Deuba camp want to hold the Assembly under its leadership while Gagan Thapa camp think it is legitimate to hold under its leadership. Now, an option has been floated that let the Assembly be held under the leadership of a third neutral party. It is reported in the media that Deuba has consented to this option. The ball seems to be in the court of Gagan Thapa, that is, NC Gen-Z.
