Jana Andolan 2.0

First, a summary on Nepal’s political history. We had first Jana Andolan (People’s Movement) in 1990. The second in 2006/7. The Mother of Gen-Z designated Gen-Z rebellion as another People’s Movement, possibly, a third one.

We never called political change in 1951 as people’s movement, rather termed as a kranti or a revolution. Please note: we do have a political history checkered by medieval psycho-rulers.

In the first people’s movement, monarchy-led one party regime was replaced by multiparty democracy; in the second we abolished monarchy and instituted federal, democratic, republic (FDR) Nepal.

Gen-Z is not people’s movement, simply because we don’t have a change in regime. Literally, Oli government was forced to resign and replaced by an Electoral Government headed by an eccentric woman; we went for early elections, keeping intact the constitutional setup.

Failed coup

Present government, coming to the power after election, may be averse to constitutional set-ups but it has taken oath under it. The way the government is functioning gives an impression that it does not give a cent to an issue of “morality and ethics”. If it is not a movement then what it is? Mr. Shyam Shrestha, a political observer, called it as a “failed coup”. It was a coup designed to replace FDR system but it simply failed and we end up with this morbid system.

With RSP securing near two-third majority in the elections, and with their youthful vigor, in fact, lots of jos sans hos, it gives a feeling of invincibility but, within six months of its existence, it has turned out to be fake, if not a big joke. The government is struggling with unfathomable natural disasters – one after another in a row, economic doldrums, political stagnation and gradual isolation from global diplomacy and politics. RSP honchos may accolade UNGA address but the rented out hooligans literally spoiled it. Closing the address with two liner Nepali, in an all-out monotonous, unpunctuated English reading, in UNGA mentioning Lord Pashupatinath and Lord Buddha is simply smacked with fake nationalism. It is similar to Oli insisting to claim rhino be called “gaida”.

Three scenarios

There are three possibilities with regards to the present government. One, it lingers on for remaining four to five years of its life, till next elections are due. There are very few believing this government survives for a full term. Remember, RSP president, Mr. Lamichhane recently pleading “let us change government through elections, not through street agitations”?

Two, there can be serious cracks within the ruling party resulting in early downfall of the government. Remember, Mukesh Dahal warning, “If RSP decided to recall Balen, he will dissolve the parliament and call for mid-term poll”?

Third, the opposition may launch a joint movement similar to Jana Andolan in 1990s. There is one more possibility that is being rumored: The Court may reinstate the dissolved parliament, annulling the last election results plus the government. The political costs of annulling the elections and dissolving the current parliament will be enormous vis-à-vis reinstating the dissolved parliament. This is not like disqualifying Mr. Lok Man Singh Karki, after more than three years, holding the position of the Chief Commissioner of the CIAA. This is Nepal. Anything is possible. This is what we are used to saying in Nepali.

Jana Andolan 2.0

If political parties don’t have a patience to wait till next elections, the only way out is to launch Jana Andolan 2.0, something akin to 1990. During the movement, Late GM Singh took the command and his first resolution is to have a unity within the disunited communists. This gave birth to present day UML Party. The movement had a single goal: To abolish monarchy-led panchayat system and replace it by multi-party democracy. Third he called upon the public to “actively support the movement, if not then not to oppose it.”

Obviously, reading of the contextual environment as much important. Relationship with India was at the lowest ebb, in fact, we had a more than a year-long nakabandi; the wave of democratization was sweeping all over the world. Remember, we also had an earthquake. It will be difficult to have an exact replication of the contextual environment but a close resemblance is enough to trigger the agitation.

Can Deuba be next Ganesh Man Singh?

Only person who can take the role of Late Ganesh Man Singh is Mr Deuba. If readers have a different person in their mind let me know. Unlike Late Singh, Deuba has to face disunity within Nepali Congress itself. It is my personal observation that, instead waiting for the court verdict, expecting re-unity within NC, it is better to part their ways. NC young turk, Gagan Thapa, has publicly claimed that he will not go for review irrespective to court verdict. I am also not sure whether Mrs Bidya Bhandari could ramble up already divided communist forces. To have a win-lose situation, the politics need polarized into two camps.

Celebrities becoming politicians and politicians becoming celebrities

The political old guards must be surprised by the abrupt rise of some hitherto unknown people into power. You don’t need a high profile with a long struggle, political imprisonment or waging a war. People can come to power in a jiffy. But note, the life expectancy of celebrities, all over the world, is too short. They make lots of money and they also fade away quickly. An abrupt rise is accompanied by an abrupt fall – that is the law of the physics and also politics. Those who are in power very much know of their life expectancy, they are united simply because of the anticipated fear or possible consequences. In nature there are no such things as “rewards” and “punishments”, there are only consequences. And this is going to be disastrous end. Please, someone prove me wrong.