This is my second take on Dancing with Deuba. The first one was written, two years back, on the eve of Deuba signing an agreement with Oli to form a two-third coalition government (My Republica). Imagine the political cost for Deuba if he insisted becoming PM, instead of Oli? That is a hypothetical question. No one has predicted Gen-Z rebellion. Who knows Gen-Z may or may not have taken place?
After five months of medical check-up or in terms of political interpretation - self-exile in Singapore/Hong Kong, Deuba returned home on 13 August. Rather than confrontation, he came with a message of national reconciliation, something akin to B. P. Koirala home coming in 1976, after eight years of self-exile in India. Will Deuba able to repeat the history set by Late B.P. Koirala? The days ahead is far more complicated than the days of Koirala. Koirala did not have to fight internal dissention inside Nepali Congress. Clearly, Deuba has two jobs at his hand. One, to unify Nepali Congress which is in doldrums. Two, solidify national politics which is in a state of sterility, if not liquidity, post Gen-Z rebellion. The government is in a sterile situation due to inner cracks and contentions. Two-third majority is simply a hoax. This government will collapse, in a minute, once the army pulls out.
In fact, Gagan Thapa ganging up is akin to Gen-Z movement inside Nepali Congress – a fight between Young Turks and old guards.
There are or were two speculations related to Deuba coming home. One, he will be nabbed at the airport. There is no specific court order to do that. This government is not based on rule of law, rather, it is based on ruling with or by law. There is no need for court order. This must be the single reason why NC netas have called its supporters and members to come to the airport to receive Deuba. Basically, this is to pre-empt government arrest. In order to ease NC members and supporters gathering at the airport, the flight was rescheduled to mid-day, instead of late night. Deuba is not being accompanied by his ambitious better half and heir apparent. This must have been strategically designed.
I do remember someone telling me, a royal bootlicker, police inspector punched Koirala at his face at the airport upon arrival. There is no dearth of police stupidity here. Late Koirala returned home, with big risks - pending court cases that might send him to the gallows. As an aftermath, in 1979 we had student riot, due to police excesses, something akin to Gen-Zs, leading to King Birendra declaring a referendum. The voting was heavily rigged, again something akin to last elections, just to trigger a mass movement in 1990 that, ultimately, kicked out king-led one-party regime called panchayat system. The country receded for a decade, for no reason. Had there been no vote rigging at an industrial scale during referendum, we would have multiparty democracy a decade earlier. Who can predict the political trajectory with BP alive?
We don’t have panchayat system now but we do have aspirants donning like King Mahendra, backed by the army, with a lust for one-party autocratic system. Remember reading BP Koirala’s atmabritanta? His biggest mistake was transferring a crack force inside Singhadurbar to the royal palace.
Two, others assume Deuba’s safe return home is all done at the behest of the government. This is to ease NC split. Deuba is supposed to address national assembly of NC supporters or basically Gagan Thapa dissenters on Friday.
There is a tacit understanding between Deuba and the Balen Government to garner the support of the Deuba faction. However, the absence of Mrs Deuba and his son speak against “tacit understanding”.
Will aging Deuba able to fulfill his mission? It is too difficult to predict political unpredictability in Nepal. For better or worse, one thing is sure to happen: the days of Luficer & Fusifer Pvt. Ltd. Co. is clearly being numbered with the arrival of Deuba. That is the reason I wrote earlier: Enter the Deuba.
