Narayan Manandhar -

Jhapa-5 is turning out to be an epicentre of Nepal’s parliamentary elections. By the way, as per Nepali saying, the residents from three districts of Nepal, namely, Jhapali, Synjali and Palpali leave a distinct mark of shrewdness and deceit.

Clash of the Titans

The contest between CPN-UML president, Mr K. P. Sharma Oli and former mayor of KMC Mr Balen Sah is going to be nothing less than the clash of the titans. Literally, it has overshadowed all other elections within and outside Jhapa district. Both are projected as possible prime ministers of Nepal. It is going to be a tough win-lose, do or die decisive battle. 

Hos Prasad vs. Jos Prasad

The contest between the two is also projected as a fight between old vs. new generations, elderly vs. youngster, outsider vs. Insider, social media celebrity vs. stand-up comedian politician. I take it as between hos prasad and jos prasad. The problem is: hos prasad has no jos and vice versa. Remember two dogs fighting over a bone while a third takes it away? Literally, the ball is in the possession of Gagan Thapa while two keep busy fighting!

On 5 March, Jhapalis are deciding on the fate of Nepal. But there is a long way to go. Simply becoming an MP does not guarantee PM, you have to garner, at least, 138 seats, and be the leader of the parliamentary party. But the election is being contested as if the country is having a prime minister.

Winning vs. Not losing

Being the president of CPN-UML, Mr Oli has a distinct advantage. He does not need to win the elections, he simply needs not to be defeated. If he don’t win the elections, he will still play the role of a king maker. However, being defeated by an outsider, a new comer, could bring shame on him. This is more dangerous than last minute helicopter ride on 9 September.

As for Balen, it is the question of life and death. By hook or cook, he has to win the elections. If he loses, there is little or nothing left to fall back. 

Taking high risk

It is exciting to watch the battle of the duo. Why is Balen taking excessive risk? Why he choose Jhapa 5 over others? This will never be known to the public. He could simply contested from a safe zone of Kathmandu or his home district Mohatari, garnering Terai-Madhesi votes. Jhapa 5, albeit in Terai plains, is out and out Pahadi district. He could even enlist as a PR candidate. But he didn’t. Instead he chose to take risk. It is his personal choice. By staking, otherwise media shy, his spouse to do campaigning, while he is busy visiting other constituencies in the Western Nepal, he is gambling.

Deciding to challenge Oli at his home ground, with a strong foothold, definitely, it is not an easy job. Saving CA elections in 2008, since 1991, Mr Oli has been continuously elected from Jhapa. 

Mr Mahesh Basnet, an Oli disciple, has compared Balen’s move as a jackal seeking to enter lion’s den for a fight. Something akin to Osanjo looking for a problem! In Nepali, it means neu khojne.

People conjecture that his (stupid) move is nothing more than being designed by RSP president Mr Lamichhane himself. This is to sideline him, like the way he did with Mr Cool Man, to avoid possible rivalry within RSP, in case, RSP come up with a flying color. Even Oli thinks that Lamichhane, dangling the carrot of PM, push him to the pit.

There are others assuming him to be planted by foreign forces. This is to humiliate Oli and distract him from becoming a king maker. Remember chuche naksa BRI agreement and tilt towards the North? Moreover, post Gen-Z movement, Oli has become the Bruce Lee of Nepali politics - a one man army fighting everybody.

There are others who think Mr Balen having a personal score to settle with Oli. Oli has accused Balen being the mastermind behind 8-9 September incidents. If Balen can defeat Goliath, in his home town, he has all the rewards to collect. There is nothing to fear. Jit ke age dar hai. Without first defeating Oli, he cannot claim the mantle of PM. This is a high-risk, high-return strategy. But in politics, there are no permanent foes and friends. You cannot move with personal vendetta.

Epicenter of violence

The growing animosity between the two, particularly, in the social media, has reached to a boiling point. In the cacophony, even his recently joined party RSP and its president have been pushed to a back stage. It gives an impression that Balen is fighting on his own, it has nothing to do with RSP.  

As both sides sharpen their tooth and claws, Jhapa 5 could easily turn into an epicenter of electoral violence. This is where we need to worry about. A brief scuffle already took place at the time of filing nomination. Similar instances can take place in other districts. Who knows things may flare up with an small ignition? Oli is still not sure of elections taking place.

Narayan Manandhar KP Sharma Oli Balen Shah Jhapa-5