Narayan Manandhar-

So, the high-voltage drama on Congressi Conundrum is now at disposal of the Supreme Court. Again, there are three possibilities: (a) the court may approve the decision of the Election Commission to recognize Special General Convention (SGC) recently concluded and its outcome, (b) issue an interim stay-order or (c) drag on the issue till elections are over.

The third option will be an extension of Nepali way of doing things at an eleventh hour. When you put everything at disposal of time pressure you don’t look for rational decisions. You end up with  “marry in haste, repent at leisure” situation.

The Crux of the Matter

The on-going Congressi Conundrum is all about determining (a) who holds the supreme power - SGC or Central Committee? (b) procedural issues related to calling SGC when General Convention has already been announced?

A Coup of a Kind

What I see, Mr Gagan Thapa coming into power is a kind of bloodless, administrative coup which the Court have to test and will also be tested by the public in the up-coming elections, if it is ever going to be held, through votes. I may be the only one who is skeptical about the up-coming elections. For Nepali Congress it could be as disastrous, as Girija calling needless mid-term poll in 1994. It gave rise to minority government (1995) and the Maoist movement (1996). This does not mean things were going fine during those days. What I am hinting at is subsequent political trajectory of  instability and upheaval, post Jana Andolan I.

Ousting NC President

Reading a 14-page long writ petition filed by Deuba faction of NC and the minutes of the Election Commission, what I figure out that if Deuba faction has anything plus points then, I would say, it is with NC Constitutional provision that the president cannot be removed sans filing no-confidence motion and securing 2/3 majority. With regards to supremacy of SG representatives over the Central Committee (CC), one may argue that the Central Committee to be a son and General Convention a father. Definitely, father gives birth to a son but, as African saying, there cannot be a father without a son. Are we into chicken-egg argument?

The Election Commission sought to eat more than what it can chew by saying, if I read correctly, something like this: “A political party cannot be democratic sans internal democracy.” This is an extra, needless satirical comment against NC, on the part of the Election Commission. Remember, out of three heads in the Commission, there is a note of dissent by one commissioner. There is also a hasty decision, on the part of the Election Commission, to up-date without first verifying the SGC members. This may have to do with time-pressure (nomination date for filing FPTP candidates).

Agreeing on Settlement Framework

Besides, what could possibly happen on Tuesday, what had happened had happened. There is a simmering hope that the disputants are reaching for an amicable solution to the problem. As proposed by NC leader Mr Min Bahadur BK, the disputants can agree on the framework of dispute settlement, that is, agree on court verdict, irrespective to its outcome. This will not only ease the court from possible pressures and to look for a rational solution but also save the face of the disputants. The problem can be put into freezer with an agreement to share nominations. However, this will be a complicated business, those not under nomination will be offended. The media reported that Gagan Thapa is eager to share nomination provided writ petition is withdrawn. I suppose, underlining conditionality will only provoke the dispute further.

The present situation has been created basically because both parties to the dispute are not ready to take the blame of splitting the party. Had the Election Commission not recognized Gagan-Biswo faction, they might have applied for a new party, something like Nepali Congress (New). The strength of both factions can be tested through voting. Now, we are into a situation where, formally, the party is intact but, informally, divided into Old and New camps, seniors and juniors, establishment and rebel factions. Actually, many parties in Nepal do have these kinds of simmering cleavages and rifts. Dispute within NC is at limelight because it is the largest democratic party where party diktat don’t work.

Dividing Line

It is not Gen-Z movement, clearly, the dividing line between two factions of NC is up-coming elections. Gagan-Biswo Prakash duo is in favour of holding SGC before elections while Deuba faction is after elections. The duo wanted to go to elections with a fresh vision while Deuba faction is of view that going to polls with a divided NC means a disaster - something akin to mid term poll in 1994. With no or suspended elections, NC will easily pull over into one. 

Narayan Manandhar Gagan Thapa