Narayan Manandhar -

Let me start here with the last para I wrote after last Friday.

Beginning of an end

Fridays are important days in Nepali politics, especially, late hours. So did Friday, January 16, 2026 turned out to be. The Election Commission decided to recognize Thapa-Sharma Congress faction as the mainstream party reducing Deuba-Congress to be a break away faction. I have labeled the recognition of Thapa-Sharma Congress as “end of the beginning” while non-recognition of Deuba Congress as “beginning of an end”. This is not just play of words. Let me make it clear: It is the beginning of an end of FDR Nepal. When I say “end of the beginning”, I mean to say the end of the beginning of new politics in Nepal.

Gen-Z replica

The rebel within Nepali Congress (NC) Party is, more or less, a replication of Gen-Z revolt at a party-level. When I say replication, I do not mean by the intensity and ex-tensity of mayhem and destruction; but in terms of characters, process, outcome and impact. As the youth wings of both sides vie to take control of the party offices and venues, street-violence may not have to wait long.  

The Gen-Z revolt, initiated by youngsters, was infiltrated and hijacked; they ended up toppling Oli Government but fell short of constitutional reforms. It was successful in calling early elections but not sure elections going to solve Nepal’s entrenched political problems. As one cartoonist depicted: They thought they have put their mother onto the power; but ended up having a step-mother! Due apology for offending step-mothers. 

Reality vs. Ideality

At an outset it may give an impression of fight between old vs. new, young vs. elderly, change vs. status quo, nostalgic past vs. aspirational future; but in essence the reality defies ideality. What would happen need not necessarily follow what should happen. Gagan-Biswo may prove their majority (reality) but the legality is, clearly, with Mr Deuba. It is a different thing that the Election Commission did not recognized that legality.

The duo will face the same fight the Gen-Zs are currently facing - the fight with the old outdated, retarded system of legal/judicial and bureaucratic slothful maze. Gen-Z did ousted Oli Government but they now have Gen-Z’s Mother. Thapa-Sharma may have ousted Deuba and his seven samurai, but will have to grapple the same problem that Gen-Z are now confronting.  

Impact on Elections

The direct impact of NC conundrum is going to have on upcoming elections. My own prediction is: There will be no elections. The Gen-Z Mother will be happy to postpone elections but that, literally, means revival of the parliament. And it is suicidal to her. She will do anything to hang on to the power - enter an agreement with Gen-Z, initiate dialogue with anarchists-monarchists, release sahakari thugs and withdraw court cases. On Friday night when media people were watching the drama unfolding at the Election Commission, very few took notice of agreement she signed with Durga Prasai at the Singhadurbar.  

CPN-UML’s worry

Read social media, on will not be surprise to note that it is not so much the congressi leaders and members worried by NC split but it is CPN-UML leaders. Oli-ba is there to rescue Deuba. This does not auger well for Gen-Z ko maa.

CPN-UML worry is that drama within NC will affect up-coming elections. And it is CPN-UML who’s priority is to revive parliament, not holding elections! 

Others worry that the crisis in the largest party is going to impact on country’s politics, democracy and stability. Still tthers are awaiting with jharla ra khaula attitude. They equate NC split with their election victory. There are no shortages of conspiracy theories as well: (a) the whole episode is to postpone elections and assure bhagband system (sharing of the spoils); (b) it could be NC’s grand design to capture RSP via waggling Wagle; (c) Americans searching for their Zelenskyy in Nepal or making Nepal another Venezuela, via MCC; (d) no, no, it is, basically, an India idea.         

Shakespearian Tragedy

It may sounds that an octogenarian Deuba at the receiving end - physically and psychologically. An on-line news portal equated his downfall (?) with the Shakespearian tragedy. Imagine your situation - residence reduced to ashes, you and your wife being manhandled, being accused of having sacks and sacks of bank notes, robbed PM-in-waiting; and, to add insult to the injury, at the fag end of your political career, you now have to carry the wounds of party split and disarray? 

Enter the Deuba

I suppose it is too early to pass judgement on Deuba. In politics, there cannot be binary classification of good and bad, black and white. There are no permanent foes and friends.

As one Congressi noted, Deuba is, basically, a dealer, a deal-maker. We are not sure of the shapes of things to come tomorrow. He did inform, in advance, of this situation: if special general convention going to be held there will be split in NC. Earlier, I posited in this portal, Oli to be the Bruce Lee of present day Nepali politics.  The political script is, definitely, being written for Enter the Deuba. I read news in an online portal that Deuba knew what the Commission is going to take at 1.00pm and informed this matter to his comrades busy organizing a press meet at Sanepa. If you think Deuba days are over either you are living in a cuckoo’s land, or, if not, then day-dreaming. If you think “to dream, you still have to sleep” then that is your choice.

Narayan Manandhar Gagan Thapa Sher Bahadur Deuba Election