KATHMANDU — The internal power struggle within the Nepali Congress (NC) has finally culminated in a formal split. With the conclusion of a "Special General Convention" led by expelled General Secretaries Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, Nepal's oldest democratic party has fractured into two. Analysts are now observing that the direct strategic beneficiary of this split is the CPN-UML and its Chairman, KP Sharma Oli.

Deuba’s ‘Safe Exit’ and Oli’s Assurance

Beneath the surface of these events lies a hidden power equation between CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba. Oli, a former Prime Minister, had reportedly met Deuba in person multiple times, assuring him of support as the next Prime Minister. Deuba (80), who recently survived a brutal physical attack during the "Gen Z" movement, was awaiting a safe and graceful political exit. He had planned to hold the regular general convention, keep the party united, and wait for his turn at the premiership. However, the internal rebellion has severely complicated his path.

Gagan’s ‘Communist Style’ and the Question of Legitimacy

On the other hand, serious questions have been raised regarding the style of the "Special General Convention" organized by the faction led by Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma. Contrary to democratic practices, the group adopted a style akin to communist parties—conducting no voting or elections. The leadership was announced under the guise of "consensus." This has created legal complexities regarding whether the Election Commission will grant official recognition to this faction. Regardless of whether they receive legal validation, the Nepali Congress is politically fractured.

Oli’s Smile in Gundu

The biggest winner of the Congress split appears to be the communist forces, specifically the CPN-UML. With his primary competitor divided, Chairman Oli is reportedly watching the spectacle with a smile from his residence in Gundu. Gagan Thapa has taken a hardline stance, refusing to collaborate with the UML under any circumstances and staking his own claim for the Prime Ministership. This signals a potential hung parliament and future political instability.

Existential Crisis: What is the Status of 'Half a Congress'?

The fundamental question now is not just about legal legitimacy, but electoral mathematics. How many seats can "half a Congress" win in the upcoming election? Whether it is the "Old Congress" led by Sher Bahadur Deuba or the "Young Congress" led by Gagan Thapa, both factions risk being significantly weaker compared to the UML if they contest separately. This division seems to have shrunk the parliamentary status of both sides, effectively paving the way to hand the keys of power over to the communist bloc.

KP Sharma Oli Gagan Thapa Sher Bahadur Deuba