Narayan Manandhar - 

Nepali Congress leaders and cadres may claim having a solid unity (ek dhikka); in order to avoid party split, they could be ready even to take poison; and they rationalize, recent changes, as change in neta (leadership), not in niti (policy). But the fact is that, Court’s refusal to issue stay order, has, clearly, paved way for a formal split. Earlier, court order officially divided CPN Double into Oli faction and Prachanda faction. This time it is with Nepali Congress. 

Three Camps

Literally, the party is split into three camps, namely, Deuba Camp (old congress), Shekhar Camp (mid-path approach) and Gagan-Biswo Prakash Camp (new congress).

The Koirala camp assumes itself taking a pragmatic, middle ground. To quote late former British PM, Margaret Thatcher, “It is perfectly OK to drive left or right; but if you drive at the middle of the road, there are more chances of being hit by the traffic coming from both directions.” I suppose, Koirala Camp, often designated as an oscillating pendulum congress, grasp the meaning.

Gagan ganging-up

I have labeled the rise of Gagan-Biswo Prakash faction as an “administrative coup” or a replica of Gen-Z movement at a party-level. Gagan may have been successful in ganging up against Deuba, but his difficult days are not over. There are, at least, three hurdles to clear. One, the Damocles Sword hanging over his head inside the Supreme Court.  Two, the electoral performance. This will be his litmus test. Any diminution in NC popular votes and seats could come as a backlash, a gross leadership failure. Biswo Prakash Sharma, new VP, is clearly playing underdog. Third, Gagan has to face the challenge of holding 15th General Convention in Baishak (Middle of May).

Fourth, the Deuba faction, may have remained mute or for withdraw contesting elections, waiting for the electoral outcome. The faction is aleady planning to organize national assembly immediately after elections.

Denouncing Deuba

Some section of the people are busy denouncing Deuba - he is out, he is a loser, Gagan took a full revenge on him by not issuing tickets, he is scared to contest elections, he is a lovi buddo, a stubborn character, finally, NC is free from the clutches of rana saashan, from hobnobbing with communists. There are NC supporters claiming, “’we could have avoided September disaster had we just pulled out from coalition with Oli Government”. Literally, he is at the epicentre of political criticism in present day Nepal. Interestingly, unlike Oli, he won’t react to his criticisms, he is calm and quiet, as if nothing has happened to him. This makes opponents more irritated and irrational.

Down but not out

It is too early, to pass predicaments on Deuba. Didn’t he forewarned holding Special General Convention will invite party split? How many times he said he is very happy to relinquish power, retire from politics?

Jos vs. Hos

It is one thing to capture a party HQ (party kabja) but a different thing to run the a party. The problem with Nepali politics is that “people with lots of jos (youthful energy and effort) have no hos (consciousness of direction) and people with hos have no jos. This is the basic diving line between the younger and old generations in present day Nepali politics.   

I suppose lots of criticisms on Deuba are all personal: meteoric rise of Deuba within Nepali Congress, inaudible voice, married to a rana family, Doctor Arzu Rana’s ambitiousness, becoming prime minister for five times. To be honest, his total tenure is hardly over five years. One thing that needs to be clear about Deuba is that he is essentially a crisis manager. One can designate him as a chunabi prime minister, that is, election prime minister. Sounds like he got an expertise in holding elections.    

Let me end this write up with an anecdote I gather reading foreign newspapers. During the height of the Maoist crisis, he left the country, via Belgium, to attain a seminar, being held in South Africa. At that time, a heated was taking debate inside Belgium parliament over selling arms to Nepal. Our honorable PM in route to SA, got disappeared, he never reached SA, instead, after a couple of days of news blackout, he was seen in Bangkok, Thailand. It was informally reported that he was looking for a venue in Thailand, to negotiate with the Maoists, similar to what took place between Sri Lankan Government and Tamil Tigers, before they got wipe out in 2008. For Deuba protocol means little.

PS: It is more interesting watching Tyre Kanchha, typical of Nepali style, pulling out an ill-fated bus at Trishuli river-side than reading political/election news in Nepal. Hope, Tyre Kanchha pull out the country from this mess. If Dhamala character can stand out for elections, why cannot Tyre Kanchha?

Narayan Manandhar Gagan Thapa Sher Bahadur Deuba Nepali Congress