To be honest, I must have written more than half a dozen scripts under this title. But every time I predict something, I go haywire and end-up with an awkward situation. Sounds like unpredictability is the only thing that is predictable in Nepal. Never imagined RSP coming with a flying color in the last elections. To me, having a majority government is a near impossible thing under our mixed electoral system, forget having an absolute majority. RSP is almost close to two-third majority. That is still a puzzle to be solved. I also never imagined political vetrans like Deuba, Oli or Prachanda setting into an oblivion. Literally, Deuba is in a state of self-exile. Nobody knows where he is. He is not coming back till his personal security is guaranteed. That is for sure. Oli is desperately struggling to survive after being cornered from every possible end. Prachanda has completely lost his charm. Other mile-stoners like madhesi, janjati and tharuhat movements seems have vanished, overnight, in the thin air.

Are we set for a situation akin to panchas post People’s Movement in 1990? But panchas continue to survive, howsoever, divided in form of RPP. Rajabadis are expecting an unexpected comeback. A friend of mine predicted RSP as RPP 2.0. There is some sense in it. Similar to RPP, RSP also has a strong distaste with FDR system, multiparty wallahs or loves to see Mister Terminator hobnobbing with the army. I have been calling him as “Mister Terminator” because he is here to terminate or finish this system, this constitution and FDR Nepal. Nobody knows what kind of alternatives he is after. Some predict arrival of King Mahendra style panchayat system. That is why he loves to don in black dress, reminding us, now and then, of 30 years of panchayati dark rule. During his stint at KMC, he talked of Newa culture and heritage; he was more newa than native newars themselves. Back in home town Janakpur he talked “son of the soil”. In the Far Western he talked of the Western region going to be no more far from Kathmandu. Newars in Birgunj had a feeling of deja vu when Raju Man Singh Pradhan got elected; so did the the madhesis in Kathmandu with the victory of Balen. These have turned out to be ephemeral.

Late Dr Harka Gurung wrote in his Social Demography, Newars in Kathmandu feel threatened by sain (bhote people) and khain (khas-arya people) surrounding them. I would say, the arrival of madhesis in 1980s led them to invent a new phrase with a racial slur: manu makhu, marshay kha. Literal translation will be: He is not a man, but a madhesi. The Madhesi Movement in 2008, elevated the term madhesi to a higher level - from a derogatory sense to a matter of pride and respect. Dhoti got elevated to a level of topi but Terai economy continue to languish by the concept of roti-beti relationship with India. Did any body read Mr Keshav Sthapit, during last KMC election? He branded “ an international thug”.

Victory sans celebrations

Of a total of 275 seats, with 182 seats, RSP is having an absolute majority. That is our perception. The important question is: Does RSP members perceive in a similar way? Why did not they had a single victory rally or celebration? That is another puzzle to me. In the social media, someone wrote, 20-25 RSP members are qualified to become an MP and of them only 2-3 qualified for a ministerial position. Given the behaviour and eccentricities of the members, there is some sense in the prediction. Why the Mother of Gen-Z is having an abrupt U-turn with RSP now, not before? What’s wrong with her thulo choro? The Kharani Gang? We may very easily end-up with a chicken-egg situation: Did RSP factor contributed to Balen’s victory or the other way round?

I still hold on to the belief that RSP will, eventually, split into three factions. Of the two, Mr Lamichhane is a lesser evil to me. It is better to be ruled by a sahakari thug than by an international one.

Sure of five year tenure?

There is a ruckus within RSP, as Mr Bhupi Shah, from Balen camp, is projected as next president. And you have this self-rationalization: Balen has agreed for a five-year term; there is no alternative to Ravi. Is our PM sure of this?

Assumption 1: No PM has ever completed his five year tenure in Nepal.

Assumption 2: No two-third majority government has ever survived in Nepal.

Assumption 3: If we can have this chaos in one month, imagine the shape of the things to come in six months?

Assumption 4: Balen is a man of action, not words. Actions speak louder than words. He has promises to keep - 100 activities in 100 days. Therefore, he is not talking.

Assumption 5: We are here for desh banaun ayeko (read, something akin to MAGA situation in USA). But what we have seen is destruction, demolition, havoc and mayhem. Have we ever seen any politicians declaring in public: “we are here to ruin this country”?

Assumption 6: We have adopted presidential system at the local-level and parliamentary system at provincial and federal levels. Therefore, it is near impossible to move in isolation at a federal level; as he did at the KMC. He is sure to fail.

Assumption 7: Is it possible to survive politically in Nepal offending big brother in the South? Can we ignore India-Idea? What would have happened to Oli if he had a meeting with PM Modi before Gen-Z riot in September? Was not he supposed to meet PM Modi in September 2025?

New-Age Politics

To be honest, this whole Gen-Z stuff is a hog wash to me. Sorry, if some are offended. In the past, we had People’s Movement I and People’s Movement II, but calling Gen-Z rioters as People’s Movement III is a gross simplification or undermining of earlier movements. The nearest situation to me is Janamat Sanghra days - a pure political accident turning into a torment leading to the declaration of referendum. Similar to the way, how referendum got rigged, vote rigging and political manipulations during last elections will, definitely, emerge in the days to come. Somebody must be undertaking a serious data analysis.

Are we into a new age politics where every drama seems to be staged? The arrival new faces, young faces, fresh faces. The models, the beauties, the fashion, the punk headed, the rap singers, the tik-tokers, fancy cars, flaunting of wealth. Do they represent present day Nepal? No. Definitely, not. Borrowing the phrase from Oli, are we into a kind of haa-hoo sarkar?

Categorical predictions

Without beating round the bush, let me shamelessly predict the shape of the things to come tomorrow, in categorical terms:

One: If anyone assumes that we are into a new political settlement, he or she is living in the land of cuckoos. Period.

Two: Without first completing the metamorphosis taking place within Nepali Congress Party and UML, nothing big is sure to happen.

Three: Akin to People’s Movement in 1990, only a joint collaboration between NC and UML can push out this haa-hoo sarkar out.

Four: Sooner or later, RSP will split into three camps bringing another round of political chaos.

Five: Based on regression factors, three conditions are necessary for political upheaval. These are: natural or economic disaster back home, growing political agitations and cooling of relationship with India.

Six: Some people may be here to write a history, but history does repeat in Nepal.